USDCHF: Bullish Bias (Aug 23 , 2013)
USD/JPY to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near a three-week high of 98.83 Thursday. Underpinned by reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 7.4% to 14.76; S&P rose 0.86% overnight) after better-than-forecast manufacturing PMI data out of China and the euro zone. USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers and investment trusts; buoyant U.S. Treasury yields (10-year yield hit two-year high 2.936% Thursday); positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.48 versus 81.37 early Thursday) after Markit flash U.S. manufacturing PMI improved to five-month high of 53.9 in August from 53.7 in July, U.S. Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6% in July to 96.0 (beating +0.5% forecast), Federal Housing Finance Agency house price index rose 0.7% on-month in June, Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing composite index improved to 8 in August from 6 in July, while four-week moving average of U.S. jobless claims in the week ended Aug. 17 fell by 2,250 to 330,500, the lowest level since November, 2007–reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin reducing its quantitative program as early as next month. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment before weekend. Data & event focus: 1400 GMT U.S. July new home sales; U.S. Jackson Hole economic policy symposium. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, trading in higher range is most favorable and buy position is recommended above its pivot, with the first target at 99.15 and the second target at 99.35. You should keep in view short position below the pivot keep of the first target at 98.1, breach of this target will move the pair downward further and one may expect the second target at 97.75. The pivot point stands at 98.4.
R1 – 99.15
R2 – 99.35
R3 – 99.7
S1 – 98.1
S2 – 97.75
S3 – 97.35
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