Yen drops on Investor Optimism

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 29th May (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) enjoyed another brief bounce in the Asian session as investor concerns about the GM bankruptcy and weak stocks weigh on sentiment. The main source of gains was against the Yen which came under heavy selling pressure as moody affirmed the US AAA Bond rating. US data was mixed with weekly jobless claims improving to 623 K but New Home Sales remaining weak at 0.352M vs. 0.36M forecast. Crude Oil finished up $1.63 to finish the day at $65.08 a barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 20 points or 1.20% and the Dow Jones was up 103 points or 1.25%. Looking ahead, Q1 GDP is expected to be revised to -5.5% vs. -6.1%.

The Euro (EUR) rebounding sharply from the 1.300 level grinding higher in the US session. Talk in Europe about future ECB policy focused on whether the 1.0% rate is the floor. German Unemployment data beat expectations at 1K vs. 66K forecast. O verall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3792 and a high of 1.3984 before closing at 1.3935. Looking ahead, April German Retail Sales are forecast at 0.0% vs. -1% previously. May EU Flash Inflation is forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.6% previously y/y.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened considerably in the Asian session after the affirmation of the US AAA rating from Moody’s. The pair trading above 96 and didn’t stop until sellers above 97 put a cap on the rally. Crosses were also very buoyant on the back of US stocks and are all nearing year highs. A major source of Yen selling was that Japanese Investors were looking for higher yields outside of Japan. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.48 and a high of 97.25 before closing the day around 96.85 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April Industrial Output is forecast at 3.2% vs. 1.6% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) traded briefly above the 1.6000 level but ran into a wall of offers and pulled back. CBI distributive trades fell to -17 vs. -10 forecast. GBP/JPY was incredibly well supported traded at fresh year highs of 155 Yen. EUR/GBP gave up some of the gains seen yesterday. O verall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5851 and a high of 1.6017 before closing the day at 1.5940 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Nationwide House Prices are forecast to fall -0.9% vs. -0.4% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) dipped in Asia before being caught once again by investors searching for higher yields. The Australian Interest Rate of 3.0% is the highest of the majors. Strong commodities prices are also helping to keep the bullish mood running although fresh gains and a test of 0.8000 may require more than hope to achieve in the short term. Q1 Capex fell -8.9% vs. + 6% previously. O verall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7756 and a high of 0.7871 before closing the US session at 0.7845.

Gold (XAU) rallied above $960 and is threatening to break higher after trading in a range for the past week. Direction will be set by the fate of the USD. Overall trading with a low of USD$944 and high of USD$965 before ending the New York session at USD$961 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3950

Initial support at 1.3728 (May 28 low) followed by 1.3531 (May 21 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4058 (Jan 2 high) followed by 1.4148 (Dec 31 high)

Yen – 96.75

Initial support is located at 95.24 (Mar 28 low) followed by 94.43 (Mar 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.84 (May 12 high) followed by 98.82 (May 11 high).

Pound – 1.5950

Initial support at 1.5757 (May 22 low) followed by 1.5576 (23.6% retrace 1.4398 to 1.5944). Initial resistance is now at 1.6085 (May 27 high) followed by 1.6198 (Nov 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.7850

Initial support at 0.7703 (May 26 low) followed by the 0.7630 (May 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7929 (50% retracement of 0.9847-0.6012 decline) followed by 0.8097 (Sep 30 high).

Gold – 960

Initial support at 936 (May 21 low) followed by 925 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 967 (Mar 20 high) followed by 978 (Feb 25 high).

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]]> http://www.ForexInspire.com/forex-daily-290509/feed/ 0 http://www.ForexInspire.com/forex-daily-220509/ http://www.ForexInspire.com/forex-daily-220509/#comments Thu, 21 May 2009 23:29:28 +0000 admin http://www.ForexInspire.com/?p=399 Forex Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com – Archive 22nd May (00:30GMT)

Ratings Rock Pound and Dollar

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 22nd May (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) fell heavily for the second day as concern for the US’s AAA rating saw investors dump the dollar. Weak US stocks did little to help and the link between the two has weakened. Weekly Jobless claims fell 12k to 631K this week. Crude Oil was down $1.01 a barrel to close at $61.05. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 32 points or -1.89% and the Dow Jones was down -129 points or -1.54%. Looking ahead, Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.

The Euro (EUR) gained heavily with the market focusing on the USD. Gains in the Euro led the market higher with EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP also making solid gains. May EU PMI’s were slightly better than expected at 44.7 vs. 43.8 previously. The Euro is the second largest currency in the world and any threat to the USD will result in substantial gains for the single currency. O verall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3727 and a high of .1.3925 before closing at 1.3910.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained against the USD although support at the low 94 Yen level was very solid. Crosses were mixed finishing slightly higher as their respective majors soared. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.96 and a high of 95.28 before closing the day around 94.20 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ meeting today.

The Sterling (GBP) had a very volatile day crashing after the S&P put the UK on negative watch. The pair found support at 1.55 and rebounded for the rest of the day to touch fresh week highs just below 1.5900. UK business investment fell 5.5% in Q1. O verall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5513 and a high of 1.5893 before closing the day at 1.5870 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q1 GDP is forecast at 1.9%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retreated with stocks in the Asian session before rocketing with the Euro to test 0.7800 for the second time this week. The correlation with US stocks is weakening and the safe haven status is failing to have the same impact as at the start of the Financial crisis. O verall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7666 and a high of 0.7805 before closing the US session at 0.7795.

Gold (XAU) rallied with the USD weakness causing investors to seek out protection. Gold has long been seen as a USD hedge. Overall trading with a low of USD$936 and high of USD$956 before ending the New York session at USD$952 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3910

Initial support at 1.3531 (May 19 low) followed by 1.3424 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3963 (Jan 5 high) followed by 1.4058 (Jan 2 high)

Yen – 94.20

Initial support is located at 93.98 (Mar 20 low) followed by 93.54 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 96.70 (May 19 high) followed by 97.84 (May 11 high).

Pound – 1.5850

Initial support at 1.5450 (May 20 low) followed by 1.5296 (May 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5891 (May 21 high) followed by 1.6198 (Nov 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.7785

Initial support at 0.7630 (May 20 low) followed by the 0.7451 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8097 (Sep 30 high) followed by 0.8348 (Oct 6 high).

Gold – 953

Initial support at 916 (May 18 low) followed by 906 (May 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 956 (Mar 21 high) followed by 967 (Mar 20 high).

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Forex Daily Outlook by Easy-Forex.com – Archive 20th May (00:30GMT)

USD hits year lows against Risky Currencies

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 20th May (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) came under pressure at the start of the European session with GBP breaking above resistance at 1.5350 to fresh year highs and taking AUD also to new highs above 0.7700. The optimism waned in the US session as stocks dropped into the day’s close. April Housing starts dropped to 0.458M vs. 0.52M forecast. Crude Oil was down $0.15 a barrel to close at 59.65. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 2 points or 0.13% and the Dow Jones was down 29 points or 0.34%. Looking ahead, Crude Oil Inventories forecast at -1.2 vs. -4.7m previously.

The Euro (EUR) rallied past 1.3600 before the release of the ZEW survey as the market continued to rebound. The May ZEW Current conditions dropped to -92.8 vs. -90 forecast. Zew Expectations jumped 18 points though to 31 and helped the Euro bounce. O verall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3529 and a high of .1.3670 before closing at 1.3640. Looking ahead, German PPI forecast to drop -0.3% in April.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) spent most of the day above the 96 Yen level with the Nikkei enjoying 2% gains and the crosses supporting. Japanese Q1 GDP -4.0% was slightly better than the -4.2% forecast but still at long term lows. Concerning was the Capex which felt the largest drop on record. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.89 and a high of 96.73 before closing the day around 96.10 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) broke to record highs above 1.5500 as the market responded to the normalization of the financial markets. Banking health has helped the GBP more than most as London is a major financial hub. April CPI at 2.3% y/y vs. 2.4% forecast. O verall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5294 and a high of 1.5527 before closing the day at 1.5480 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) hit year highs after breaking above resistance at 0.7735 to touch 0.7785 before easing as Wall St. finished lower. RBA minutes released yesterday offered little new to future policy direction with the month by month approach now anticipated. O verall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7628 and a high of 0.7785 before closing the US session at 0.7740. Looking ahead, May Consumer Sentiment previously at 8.3.

Gold (XAU) picked up some ground although couldn’t manage to reclaim the key $930 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$917 and high of USD$929 before ending the New York session at USD$925 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3635

Initial support at 1.3424 (May 18 low) followed by 1.3343 (May 8 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3668 (March 19 high) followed by 1.3739 (Jan 8 high)

Yen – 96.15

Initial support is located at 94.15 (May 20 low) followed by 93.54 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.84 (May 12 high) followed by 98.82 (May 11 high).

Pound – 1.5480

Initial support at 1.5061 (May 7 low) followed by 1.4944 (May 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5724 (Dec 17 high) followed by 1.5885 (Nov 10 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.7745

Initial support at 0.7451 (May 18 low) followed by the 0.7337 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8097 (Sep 30 high) followed by 0.8348 (Oct 6 high).

Gold – 925

Initial support at 906 (May 8 low) followed by 895 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 934.2 (May 15 high) followed by 945 (Mar 26 high).

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