GBP/USD. Forecast for May 27, 2013
Today is a holiday in the UK. This week macroeconomic events on the UK are not issued, except for CBI retail sales volume balance in May (it is revealed on May 29, forecast 3 vs. -1), Nationwide House Price Index (published on May 30, forecast 0.3% vs. -0.1%), and Consumer Confidence index, forecast -25 vs. -27. As a rule in a situation when there is no news, the currency is developing according to the classical plan of the local monetary policy. In the UK the key policy is to wait for development of bond buying programme and new “unconventional measures” which are being introduced when Mark Carney became known as the future bank of England governor as well as promised reform of large banks which as he said suppose they were too big for bankruptcy. The investors may doubt the positive data on CBI retail sales volume balance amid weak Retail sales in April (published on May 22) which dropped 1.3% vs. forecast for being flat.
Technically, the pound is under pressure. On the H4 the price is lower of the indicator lines and the growth is prevented by Fibonacci extension and multiple price levels. If the testing level 1.5142 is broken, we expect the price rises not higher than the area 1.5170/90. If the lower testing level 1.5112 is broken, 1.5068, the target of the Fibonacci extension, opens and lower 1.5032, the low of April 4.
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