EUR/USD. Forecast for September 13, 2013
Yesterday the whole trading day was under the control of traders; in the beginning they did not allow the euro to drop amid weak data on Industrial Production in the eurozone in July (-1.5% vs. forecast for -0.1% and 0.6% in June), then the single currency was straightly bought amid strong data on US Initial Jobless Claims, 392K (the lowest figure for the last 6 years) vs. forecast for 332K. Probably, closure of quarterly currency futures will take place today or on Monday. However, there was one more positive event, the European Parliament adopted the law, according to it the ECB is the major supervisor for the EU banks, thus creation of banking union is inevitable.
Today data on the US is expected to be strong today. At 16:30 UTC+4 the major event of the day, Retail Sales in August; forecast 0.5% vs. 0.2% in July. Retail Sales excluding auto is expected to rise 0.3% vs. 0.5% in July. At 17:55 UTC+4 Consumer Confidence Index preliminary in September is issued; forecast 82.6 vs. 82.1 in August.
We expect the drop of the euro. When the support of trend line o the H4 is broken on the level of 1.3268, the first target of 1.3230 opens, the second target is 1.3210, and the third target is 1.3156, support of lilac trend line.
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