EUR/USD. Forecast for March 14, 2013
Yesterday the markets fell unexpectedly amid strong US Retail Sales. Sales at US retailers rose in February. It grew 1.1% vs. expectations for 0.5% and 0.2% in January. Even stock market fell; S&P 500 dropped 0.27%; the euro dropped 85 points. As a result, S&P 500 rose 0.16%; the British pound added 18 points, and the euro lost 70 points.
Today at 14:00 GMT+4 Employment Change in the Euro area in the fourth quarter is published, it is forecast to be -0.1% against -0.2% in the third quarter.
At 16:30 GMT+4 data on US Initial Jobless Claims is issued. It is expected 352K vs. 340K in the previous week. At 16:30 GMT+4 US Current Account in the fourth quarter is released. It is expected to be -$ 111 bln vs. -$ 108 bln in the Q3. At 21:00 GMT+4 US government will sell $ 13 bln of 30-year bonds. Yesterday Treasury 10-year note yields declined from almost the highest level in eleven months as the government’s $ 21 bln auction of the securities drew the strongest demand since October.
Thus, due to these reasons, the growth is not expected. We expect the sideways movement. On Friday, amid strong data on US Industrial Production, the swing of the euro, which was delayed, is possible. The placement of short-term bonds is scheduled on the next week. On the whole, the drop of the euro, which has demand on the dollar liquidity due to considerable placements made by investment funds in the US stocks, as well as US Treasury’s wish to strengthen the currency while the maximum high volume of bonds may be considered as completed. At least we expect a correction, then the stocks will be influenced by the situation on the Korean peninsula and the impact of the sequestration on the US economy.
From the technical point of view, trading range may be characterized by the support on the daily chart of the trendline and the level of Fibonacci 76.4% at 1.2912 and resistance 1.2990, the low of March 12 ( in case it is broken, the growth to 1.3028 and probably to 1.3052 is possible).
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com